Scott Kleeb: huge cash advantage in deep red NE-03

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan

Okay, I had to read this and re-read this over and over again to make sure I got it right.  I even picked up a couple different papers and checked the internet to make sure this wasn't the result of an honest mistake.  But they all repeat the same thing:

The Omaha World Herald is now reporting that Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher with a PhD from Yale on International Relations, has taken the lead in the COH race against his Republican opponent, State Sen. Adrian Smith in the open seat contest in NE-03.  Taken the lead by a lot, actually.  According to the article, Smith currently has a warchest of $105,000, while Kleeb has nearly three time as much in the bank: $277,000.  And this is in the sixth most Republican district in the entire country.

More on the flip.

Kleeb's lead comes even though he was outraised by Smith in the second quarter.  Kleeb collected $203,000 for the 2Q while Smith raised $290,000.  What's amazing about these numbers, however, is that Smith's advantage even in funds raised during this time would be nearly obliterated were it not for a last minute campaign stop by Dick Cheney which netted him a cold $85,000.  In fact, it now appears that Cheney's fundraising stop was absolutely nothing short of what I reported it to be a month ago: a sign of desperation from a campaign verging on bankruptcy.

This si the Fifty State Strategy in action, folks.  How the hell did this become a competitive race?  Because the GOP took it for granted, they assumed that this is their seat for the taking and so they turned their guns on each other and aimed to kill rather than reserving some ammunition for November.  The Club for Growth backed Smith, and all told raised about $400,000 for him (almost as much as Kleeb has raised this entire cycle, all told).  But the more moderate Main Street GOP Partnership backed John Hanson, an Osborne aid and one of Smith's several serious primary challengers, and spent thousands of dollars of their own rightly attacking Smith -running in one of the nation's most agricultural districts- for accepting so much money from an organization opposed to agricultural subsidies and ethanol tax incentives.  Smith won a divided primary with less than 40% of the vote and, apparently, woefully depleted coffers.

Kleeb, meanwhile, has kept his eye on the prize and has been running a campaign  intended to win.  This is one guy not content to be a sacraficial lamb.  He's raised far more money than any Democrat ever contending such a Republican seat, he's blazed the state shaking hands and walking parades and slapping backs.  He's gone on tour with former Governor/Senator/9-11 Commissioner Bob Kerrey, matched wits with Smith in public debates and recieved unanimously positive attention from both the local and national press.

In response to the Cheney fundraiser, Kleeb held a press conference at the same time and in a different part of town to lay out his plan to make Western Nebraska a technological and research pioneer in the field of energy independence (energy is a cornerstone of Kleeb's campaign, he also hit Smith hard in their first debate for unscientifically denying the existence of global warming).  His campaign and the Nebraska Democratic Party also raised hell over the news that the city of Grand Island would be picking up the bill for Cheney's security: their efforts raised this issue on the local news stations and newspaper and their complaints filled the Smith campaign e-mail account to capacity.  (check out this cartoon from the Lincoln Journal Star for a taste of the reaction: Fiscal Conservatism )

Kleeb has generated enthusiasm and has genuinely ignited the grassroots in this prairie state.  His press conference, held at nine in the morning on a workday in a small rural city was attended by over 60 people.  His one-day tour with Senator Kerrey filled venues to capacity. And the Democratic conventions in rural Nebraskan counties have gone from sparsely attended meet-and-greets to standing room only, rip-roaring festival (as reported last month in the USA Today ).

Kleeb is on a path to victory.  Perhaps it won't be his victory, perhaps he won't be the next Congressman from western Nebraska.  But if we act now, this can be our victory.  This can be a victory for a fifty-state strategy, demonstrating that genuinely competitive races can exist even in places where the national political debate has long since devolved into a monologue.  This can be a victory for people-powered poltiicis, demonstrating that even small groups of passionate people who really believe in a candidate and in a platform can make a difference.  This can be a victory for us.  But only if we're willing to bet on our candidate.  Please consider donating to Scott Kleeb and widening his cash advantage over a radical and reactionary Republican opponent.

Donate here: Donate

For more information on who Scott Kleeb is and what he stands for, read my previous diary, : "Scott Kleeb and the future of Red State Democrats"



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Re: Scott Kleeb: huge cash advantage in deep red N (3.00 / 2)

Great news.  This is a really tough race, but the republican here is completely out of touch with the district and is exactly the kind of republican that even republicans are sick of.  

I met Scott last month and he is the real deal for sure.  I gave what I could and encourage others to do the same so that he can keep working his message through the grassroots in the district.

FYI, when Cheney did show up in the district it was a total debacle because it seems to have cost the federal government more than it actually raised for the republican candidate.  It ain't cheap to bring cheney out of the bunker.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 12:54:36 PM EST

Re: Scott Kleeb: huge cash advantage in deep red N (3.00 / 1)

The only national polling organization that I saw offhand listing vulnerable house seats, Cook, left this one out altogether.

Just might be a lot of surprises around the country.


by terryhallinan on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 01:23:23 PM EST

Thanks for the bump (3.00 / 1)

Had I known I was going to get front page attention, I woulda spent a little more time writing it ;)


by Ryan Anderson on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 03:05:25 PM EST

Re: Thanks for the bump (none / 0)

Hahaha. It's a good post, so don't worry.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 03:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polling? (none / 0)

Has any polling been done in NE-03?

I'm thrilled that he has more COH, but I'm pretty sure that the way it works is not "whoever ends the race with more COH wins" or Kerry would have won in 2004.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 03:59:06 PM EST

Re: Polling? (3.00 / 1)

No independent polling has been done, and neither campaign has released any of their internal polling.  My guess is that Kleeb still wouldn't be pulling too high: he's been working hard at retail politics, but it's a huge district and that sort of stuff takes a lot of time to build up.  He hasn't done any advertising of any kind yet (Smith canvassed television and radio during his primary campaign but has, as far as I can tell, been silent ever since), and he's running against an incredibly strong GOP tilt (Bush got 75% of the vote here in 2004).  

But Nebraskans, on the balance, aren't reactionary ultra-partisans.  They tend to like iconoclasts and cult-of-personality types, and Kleeb most certaintly has the campaign presence and charisma to join the ranks of a George Norris or Ed Zorinsky or Bob Kerrey.


by Ryan Anderson on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 04:11:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling? (none / 0)

The district is pretty competitive when it's an open seat.

If I can steal a quote from hellofasandwich over at swingstateproject.com, he made this observation,

"As for Scott Kleeb, that district has been Republican since 1958. But the key thing about that district is this: it's been an open seat three times since then, and in two of those three times, the Democratic candidate almost won. In 1974, it was only by 737 votes. In 1990, it was only by 4,373 votes. For that reason, and for Kleeb's very impressive persona, I've been checking out the local coverage of this race periodically, and Kleeb's been getting favorable coverage. He's even got Bob Kerrey doing finance work for him. In a district like this one, retail politics goes a long way, and from what I've seen, Kleeb looks like pretty gifted in the area of interpersonal relations. I'll be keeping my eye on this one."

The third time it was an open seat was when Tom Osbourne ran for it, so that was a blowout. But other than that, it is definately a seat that is in play when it's open. And the fact that Kleeb has more money means he has more means to get his name out there and define the republican as out of touch with the district. What with his club for growth/libertarian/no farm subsidies views that ain't going to be too popular western Nebraska.


by adamterando on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 04:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Scott Kleeb: huge cash advantage (none / 0)

Great news Ryan.

Keep up the good work out there -- I will be paying attention to Scott for sure.


by v2aggie2 on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 05:06:09 PM EST

Polling (none / 0)

If there is going to be a big shift in NE-3 the pollster's own bias as to reliable voters means it won't show. Instead of sampling non-voters, they will take those who are registered and those people right now will still say the Republican. But if Kleeb distinguishes himself, it becomes the Republican and Scott Kleeb.


by risenmessiah on Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 06:50:05 PM EST

Re: Scott Kleeb NE-03 (none / 0)

You're right to follow this race. Scott's an impressive candidate, and his campaign is building a good infrastructure with over 900 volunteers recruited. Sen Nelson has been plugging Scott as well, and he should do well here at the top of the ticket. Also, the "Club for Growth" guy, Sen Adrian Smith, is out of the wingnut caucus of the GOP and won a slash and burn primary campaign that has still left a bitter taste with a lot of GOPers.


by Skipster on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 01:47:02 PM EST


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