SUSA: No "Black-Brown Divide" in New Mexico

I just wanted to briefly revisit an argument that was made on this blog a few months ago, an argument for which we finally have some new and very compelling evidence to the contrary.  In his post "Obama's problem with Latinos against McCain", Jerome Armstrong used a general election poll from the swing state of New Mexico to argue that Latino voters, as the result both of a divide in the black and Latino communities as well as McCain's relative sanity on the issue of immigration, were likely to flee to John McCain in a November matchup against Barack Obama.  Well, SUSA has come out with new numbers in NM today that show a very different story indeed:

All voters:

Clinton 50% (45)
McCain 45%  (48)

Obama 55% (40)
McCain 40% (51)

After only very limited campaigning in the state ahead of Feb. 5th, Obama has incredibly gone from an 11 point deficit to a 15 point lead and now outperforms Hillary by a significant 10% margin. More amazing still are the numbers from Latino voters alone:

Latino voters:

Clinton 61% (54)
McCain 33%  (39)

Obama 68% (42)
McCain 26% (45)

So not only has Obama reversed his deficit in regards to John McCain, he is now actually outpolling Sen. Clinton herself among the demographic group that supposedly her greatest electoral strength (notably, Obama also outperforms Clinton among women in this poll).  

Just saying, is all.  Of course, one thing we can learn from these polls is that the numbers are still fluid, and it's rather silly to evaluate electibility based on the results of a survey taken more than nine months out from Election Day.  On the other hand, these numbers also tend to reinforce the argument that the more voters know about Obama, the more likely they are to support him.

Most importantly, however, I think these results prove the folly of assuming too much about the power and prevelance of racism today and trusting too little in the judgments of the voters themselves.  I have argued with Armstrong and others that we must challenge bias and confront prejudice even if we risk political defeat in so doing.  I am not yet ready to rest my case but I am more willing than ever to fight on towards that goal: a victory in November that is not just of party but of principle.  There are many valid reasons to support Sen. Clinton over Sen. Obama in this contest, but race is not among them.



Display:


Also of note (none / 0)

Obama gets 72% of the Latino vote in California, more or less equal to Hillary Clinton: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=13f96411-ff24-4479-9d8b-c51804 507f93


by Ryan Anderson on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 02:26:44 PM EST

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

And Clinton gets 75% of the black vote in that survey. So what's your point?


by LakersFan on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 02:49:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

His point is that those predicting that Obama would have a hard time attacting latino voters against McCain don't appear to be correct according to these polls. Some on here have repeatedly claimed that latino voters would "abandon" Obama vs. McCain.


by bigdcdem on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 02:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

And plenty of people have asserted that black voters would "abandon" Clinton.

Regardless, hypothetical head-to-head match-ups 8 months before the election are indicative of nothing (especially when they only poll 512 people and only 51% of them are women).


by LakersFan on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 03:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

The people who suggested that black voters would abandon Clinton are also wrong.  You might note that I am not one of those people, so you r reply strikes me as something of a non sequitor.

I also agree with you that head-to-head matchups are not a good basis for determining election results this far out, which is why I explicitly said exactly the same thing in both this post and my original replies to Armstrong's arguments.  Armstrong based his entire model on a single poll that already, just three months later, contradicts his assertion entirely.  


by Ryan Anderson on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 04:42:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

If you don't believe any of these polls, then I guess I just don't get the point of your diary at all. If you were just trying to point out your difference with Jerome, that's fine. But I don't see why you would use questionable polling data to criticize Jerome's use of polls that you find questionable.


by LakersFan on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 07:35:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also of note (none / 0)

I didn't say I don't believe any of these polls.  I think these polls are an accurate snapshot of the state of the race at this time.  I don't believe that makes them a precise forecaster of things to come, but it's not true that they mean nothing.

More importantly, my diary is a direct response to Jerome's.  He used a SUSA poll in NM as the only tangible evidence to support his claim.  If he finds those results persuasive, then surely he must admit that these results proved him wrong.  I'm just accepting his logic for the sake of debate.


by Ryan Anderson on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 01:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.