I just wanted to briefly revisit an argument that was made on this blog a few months ago, an argument for which we finally have some new and very compelling evidence to the contrary. In his post "Obama's problem with Latinos against McCain", Jerome Armstrong used a general election poll from the swing state of New Mexico to argue that Latino voters, as the result both of a divide in the black and Latino communities as well as McCain's relative sanity on the issue of immigration, were likely to flee to John McCain in a November matchup against Barack Obama. Well, SUSA has come out with new numbers in NM today that show a very different story indeed:
All voters:Clinton 50% (45)
McCain 45% (48)Obama 55% (40)
McCain 40% (51)
After only very limited campaigning in the state ahead of Feb. 5th, Obama has incredibly gone from an 11 point deficit to a 15 point lead and now outperforms Hillary by a significant 10% margin. More amazing still are the numbers from Latino voters alone:
Latino voters:Clinton 61% (54)
McCain 33% (39)Obama 68% (42)
McCain 26% (45)
So not only has Obama reversed his deficit in regards to John McCain, he is now actually outpolling Sen. Clinton herself among the demographic group that supposedly her greatest electoral strength (notably, Obama also outperforms Clinton among women in this poll).
Just saying, is all. Of course, one thing we can learn from these polls is that the numbers are still fluid, and it's rather silly to evaluate electibility based on the results of a survey taken more than nine months out from Election Day. On the other hand, these numbers also tend to reinforce the argument that the more voters know about Obama, the more likely they are to support him.
Most importantly, however, I think these results prove the folly of assuming too much about the power and prevelance of racism today and trusting too little in the judgments of the voters themselves. I have argued with Armstrong and others that we must challenge bias and confront prejudice even if we risk political defeat in so doing. I am not yet ready to rest my case but I am more willing than ever to fight on towards that goal: a victory in November that is not just of party but of principle. There are many valid reasons to support Sen. Clinton over Sen. Obama in this contest, but race is not among them.
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